Over 30 Conservative seats are at risk of changing hands as students return home for the summer holidays, according to an analysis on how student voters could sway the UK’s general election.

Esther McVey’s Tatton constituency is among 35 suburban or rural seats where Tory hopes may be dashed by students registered to vote at their family homes instead of their university addresses.

This warning precedes Tuesday’s voter registration deadline, with the National Union of Students (NUS) urging members to sign up.

The Higher Education Policy Institute (Hepi) suggests that holding the general election in the summer was a strategic error, potentially hindering Conservative efforts to curb losses, as polling shows weak support for the party among 18-24-year-olds.

Josh Freeman, Hepi’s policy manager, stated, “The 2024 general election will be unusual. Most recent elections occurred during term-time, giving Labour large majorities in student-heavy constituencies. In 2024, many students will return to their home addresses, some in formerly safe Conservative seats now in jeopardy.”

Hepi’s analysis, based on student registrations and YouGov forecasts, indicates that McVey, a Cabinet Office minister elected MP for Tatton in 2017, may struggle to retain her seat.

YouGov’s polling shows McVey’s redrawn constituency on a knife edge between her and Labour rival Ryan Jude. Hepi’s research reveals that returning students – 1,800, or 2.4% of the electorate – outnumber the margin separating the leading candidates in YouGov’s forecasts.

Among the 35 constituencies, Harpenden and Berkhamsted could see an influx of 2,500 students. Additionally, over 2,000 students moving back home could swing results in Finchley and Golders Green, Windsor, Tunbridge Wells, and Michael Gove’s former Surrey Heath seat.

Chloe Field, NUS vice-president for higher education, said, “By calling the election when young people are highly politicized and eager for change, the prime minister may have given student voters not just the keys to university towns but the country.”

Labour and Conservatives have offered little aimed at student voters. The Conservative manifesto plans to expand apprenticeships, while Labour promises a secure future for higher education.

Both Labour and the Liberal Democrats plan to review higher education finance if in government, while the Green party proposes abolishing tuition fees and reintroducing maintenance grants.

In Hepi’s survey of 10,000 undergraduates, 69% registered only at their permanent address, while 15% were registered at both term-time and permanent addresses. Students can register at both but vote only once.

However, the survey also found that only 68% of students intend to vote in the general election, including 66% of those aged 21 or under.

The NUS campaign to register students to vote includes offering a free CitizenCard photo ID for voter identification. Over 21,000 have signed up so far.

Freeman emphasized that the election’s timing makes the student vote more potent and urged students to “take the time to register to avoid regret on July 5th.”

“And political parties, whether or not they have historically attracted student voters, should consider how to win over students on election day,” Freeman added.